Latest publications

Recession Probabilities

There are non-negligible risks of recession in five of the six countries we have examined. The probability of a recession is between 30-45% in two years’ time. UK is the exception. Policymakers in Sweden, Canada, and France should be most worried. (August 22, 2019)

UK in a middle ground

We have forecasted UK GDP based on financial variables. If Brexit works smoothly, the UK economy will recover 2020. UK markets do not fully discount a recession. In that case there are room for further declines of the pound, the stock market and the bond yields. (August 12, 2019)

Stable US-dollar in Q3

Our models signal a low probability for a significant change of the US-dollar during Q3, in either direction. However, against the Swedish krona there is a significant probability for a stronger dollar, because of the krona’s sensibility to lower Swedish bond yields and rising risk aversion.  (July 10, 2019)